Key takeaways
- National home sales rose strongly in May 2026, then barely edged higher in June, showing a market that is improving but still cautious.
- Affordability improved again in Q1 2026, helped by slightly lower seasonally adjusted prices and rising median household income.
- Toronto, Vancouver and other expensive markets may offer more breathing room, but homes are not suddenly cheap.
- More affordable regions, including parts of Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, remain firm, with some provinces reaching record prices.
Affordability is improving — but only on paper so far
Canada’s housing market is entering a more nuanced phase. Affordability measures are finally starting to improve, but not because homes have become broadly affordable. The improvement is largely coming from cooler prices and demand in some of the country’s most expensive markets, while many lower-cost regions remain strong.
CREA reported that national home sales rose 5.5% in May 2026 compared with April, reaching 37,862 seasonally adjusted transactions. But the next month was much softer: June sales edged up just 0.5% month-over-month. That combination points to a market with some renewed activity, but not a full return to the high-pressure conditions many buyers remember from recent years.
The national average is hiding two very different stories
Prices also tell a mixed story. CREA’s May data showed the national average home price at $702,079, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.5% year-over-year. Seven provinces reached all-time price records, with particular strength in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies. By June, the non-seasonally adjusted national average price was $696,078, only 0.5% higher than June 2025.
Affordability data reflects that split. National Bank data summarized in a recent forecast showed mortgage affordability improved again in Q1 2026, with the mortgage payment on a representative home as a share of income falling 0.5 percentage points after a 0.4-point improvement in Q4 2025. Seasonally adjusted home prices dipped 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, while median household income rose 0.7%.
But the improvement was not uniform. Affordability improved notably in Hamilton, Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Ottawa-Gatineau. It worsened in Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal and Quebec City, while Calgary was unchanged. That matters because a national headline can make the market sound easier than it feels in your local neighbourhood.
What buyers and owners should take from this market
- In Toronto, Vancouver and other high-cost centres, slightly lower prices and modestly better affordability may create openings for well-prepared buyers, but budgets are still tight.
- In relatively affordable regions, including the Prairies, much of Atlantic Canada and parts of Quebec, competition remains firm as local prices continue to hold up or reach records.
- For current owners, this is not a return to rapid, broad-based appreciation. Equity growth is becoming more regional and more modest, which matters if you are planning to borrow against your home or downsize later.
Major bank forecasts reinforce this two-track outlook. TD Economics has projected a small national price decline for 2026, with Ontario and British Columbia expected to see the steepest drops, while some more affordable regions remain resilient. TD and CMHC both suggest sales may grind higher through the second half of 2026, supported by pent-up demand and somewhat easier mortgage qualification, but still remain below pre-pandemic norms.
How to use this information without overreaching
If you are buying, the practical move is not to assume the market has become easy. Instead, build your plan around your local market, your real monthly payment comfort zone, and a clear pre-approval before you shop. If you already own, be careful about assuming future equity gains will do the heavy lifting for renovations, debt consolidation or your next purchase. A Finevo advisor can help you compare options across 40+ Canadian lenders and map out a plan that fits today’s local market — not last year’s headlines.
This article is general information about Canadian mortgages and is not financial advice. Rates, programs, and eligibility are subject to change and to lender and insurer qualification. Figures cited reflect market conditions at the time of writing. Speak with a licensed Finevo advisor for guidance specific to your situation.
