Canada’s Two-Track Housing Market: Condos Cool as Affordable Regions Stay Hot

Canada is not one housing market right now

The big Canadian housing story is no longer simply “prices are up” or “prices are down.” It is the split. National resale data show a market that is broadly balanced overall, but underneath that average are very different conditions depending on where you live and what type of home you are buying or selling.

CREA data for May 2026 showed the non-seasonally adjusted national average home price at $702,079, up 1.5% year over year, with 4.8 months of inventory nationally. That points to a market that is not yet a clear buyer’s market across Canada, but also not the overheated market many people remember from a few years ago.

Toronto and Vancouver condos are where buyers have more leverage

The softest conditions are concentrated in Ontario and B.C., especially in Toronto and Vancouver. Recent bank and board reports point to large inventory build-ups and weaker demand in these least affordable markets. RBC notes that buyers still have stronger negotiating power in Vancouver and Toronto because there is ample inventory, which continues to put pressure on prices.

The condo segment has taken the clearest hit. A CIBC-linked analysis described the oversupplied condo market as seeing “the most significant damage,” with national condo prices about 35% below the trend line after a roughly 15% drop from the early-2022 peak. Single-family homes, by comparison, are described as “hanging in there.”

More affordable regions are still competitive

Outside Ontario and B.C., the picture is quite different. National Bank’s June 2026 Housing Market Monitor notes that while Ontario and B.C. are softer, all other provinces still favour sellers. RBC also points to seller-friendly conditions and steadily appreciating home values in the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, helped by tighter supply and better relative affordability.

That means buyers and sellers in cities such as Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Quebec City and parts of Atlantic Canada may still be dealing with faster sales, firmer pricing and less room to negotiate than someone shopping for a condo in Toronto or Vancouver. The national average does not tell you whether you will have leverage at the offer table.

How to read this market before you make a move

• If you are buying a Toronto or Vancouver condo, use the extra choice carefully: compare recent sales, test price flexibility and budget for carrying costs, not just the purchase price.
• If you are selling a condo in those cities, realistic pricing and strong marketing matter more when buyers can be selective.
• If you are buying in a tighter market such as the Prairies, Quebec or Atlantic Canada, be prepared for firmer competition and less room for aggressive negotiation.
• If you are selling in a seller-friendly region, strong demand can help, but pricing still needs to match current local conditions.

The practical takeaway is simple: do not make a decision based only on a national housing headline. Canada’s market is now moving on two tracks — high-cost urban condo markets are correcting under heavy supply, while many lower-cost regions and low-rise segments remain tight and resilient.

If you are planning to buy, sell or renew in this kind of uneven market, a Finevo advisor can help you look past the headline numbers, compare options across 40+ Canadian lenders, and map out a mortgage plan that fits the market you are actually in.