CMHC Summer 2026 Housing Outlook: Softer Market, Rising Ontario Arrears

CMHC’s Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook was released on July 22, 2026, so the outlook itself is not a new late-October announcement. What has changed is the added warning from CMHC’s October 27 report: mortgage arrears in Ontario are rising, with the increase expected to continue through mid-2027.

What CMHC’s summer outlook says about the 2026 market

CMHC says the forecast has changed little since its winter outlook, but housing activity so far in 2026 — especially sales and prices — has been weaker than expected. The main pressures are slower population growth, economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs and modest income growth, all of which have held back housing demand.

CMHC’s baseline forecast still puts Canadian economic growth at 0.7% in 2026. It expects home prices to fall during 2026, then rise modestly in 2027 and 2028. Sales may gradually recover, but are expected to remain below levels typical of the past decade.

The outlook is not the same across the country. CMHC expects Prairie markets to lead price growth, while Ontario and British Columbia face weaker activity because of affordability challenges and slower population growth. For buyers, that means national headlines may not describe what is happening in your local market.

The newer concern: Ontario mortgage arrears

CMHC’s October 27 report says Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32% in the second quarter of 2026 and is expected to keep rising through mid-2027. CMHC expects the increase to be most pronounced in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario.

At the same time, CMHC says mortgage stress is not widespread nationally. Arrears have declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan and are expected to remain stable there through mid-2027. For homeowners, the takeaway is not to panic — it is to review renewal affordability, cash flow and debt obligations before pressure builds.

Rentals may ease, but supply remains a long-term issue

CMHC expects housing starts to keep declining as builders deal with weak demand, elevated inventories and high construction costs. Rental markets are also expected to ease in 2026 as new supply lifts vacancy rates and slows rent growth, especially in Toronto and Vancouver. That could give renters more choice and more time to save, although CMHC says affordability challenges will persist because rents remain high relative to incomes.

The longer-term supply picture is still challenging. CMHC’s fall supply report estimates Canada needs 417,000 to 469,000 homes per year to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036, which is well above current projected construction.

• If you are buying, softer prices may help, but the outlook is not a promise of further declines in every market.
• If you are renting, easing conditions may reduce the pressure to rush into ownership before you are financially ready.
• If you own a home in Ontario, especially near renewal, it may be worth reviewing payments and cash flow earlier than usual.
• If you are planning to sell, local inventory, buyer demand and regional affordability matter more than the national average.

How Finevo can help

A Finevo advisor can help you interpret what this market outlook means for your next step — whether that is buying, renewing, refinancing or simply stress-testing your household budget. We can compare options across 40+ Canadian lenders and help you build a practical plan before decisions feel urgent.